Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 78.2%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 48 minutes ago
LaggingMar 8, 26, 10:57 PM UTCFeb 28, 29, 10:49 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will America lose its war against Iran?
Manifold MarketsWill the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, wil...l Tehran within one year?
Manifold MarketsSaudi Arabia military action against Iran by which date?
PolymarketEuropean military action against Iran by which date?
PolymarketRules
Losing the war would be defined in two ways:
- 1: the US pulls all of their forces out of Iran, stops all attacks, and Iran as allowed to continue enriching uranium with no verifiable international controls.
- US military assets.
- (not special forces or CIA or other non-military assets.) have left the borders of Iran and there are no verifiable air land or sea attacks on Iranian soil for at least 60 days..
- 2: the United States is considered to be bogged down into a “forever war’
- Their military is continuously engaged in a significant way for at least two years.
