Who would win if Ethiopia went to war against Eritrea and its ally,The Tigray Defense Force (TDF) ?
PoliticsOne-OffGeopolitics2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastEritrean Defense Forces and Tigray Defense Force will win the Fight. 67.8%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleFeb 20, 26, 1:36 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 1:34 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves based on the outcome of a hypothetical military conflict between the Ethiopian Defense Force (ENDF) and an alliance of the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF) and Tigray Defense Force (TDF).
- Resolution will be determined by a poll voted on by market participants, as the outcome of a future conflict cannot be objectively verified through external sources.
- Traders should vote based on their assessment of which side would achieve military victory in such a scenario.
- Eritrea has formed an alliance of convenience with the TPLF since early 2025 despite their historic animosity.
- This represents a dramatic shift from the 2020-2022 Tigray War, when forces allied with the Ethiopian federal government and Eritrea fought against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).
