Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 56.8%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJun 17, 24, 9:01 AM UTCJan 1, 70, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any of the following western countries go to war with each other before 2030?
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PolymarketRules
Resolves the same as the original question on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/20588)Resolution Criteria
- For the purposes of this question, "Western" countries will be defined as the following:
- Austria Belgium Canada Croatia Czechia Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Great Britain Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland United States of America Australia New Zealand
- For the purpose of this question, "engage in a war" will be defined as one or more of the following being true:
- One Western country formally declares war on another Western country, or announces that it is in a state of war with that nation.