Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 56.8%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJun 17, 24, 9:01 AM UTCJan 1, 70, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any of the following western countries go to war with each other before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsWill NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves the same as the original question on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/20588)Resolution Criteria
- For the purposes of this question, "Western" countries will be defined as the following:
- Austria Belgium Canada Croatia Czechia Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Great Britain Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland United States of America Australia New Zealand
- For the purpose of this question, "engage in a war" will be defined as one or more of the following being true:
- One Western country formally declares war on another Western country, or announces that it is in a state of war with that nation.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.1%
- September 30-4.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-21.5pt47%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65M
- 24h Vol
- $116.9K
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will any Western countries go to war against each other before 2070??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 57% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will any Western countries go to war against each other before 2070? resolve?
- Will any Western countries go to war against each other before 2070? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2070.
- How is Will any Western countries go to war against each other before 2070? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves the same as the original question on Metaculus.