What are the current odds for Will USA or China win in a war against each other??

Manifold Markets prices No such war begins before 2050 at 42.6% as of October 26, 2026.

Will USA or China win in a war against each other?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:29 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

No such war begins before 2050 42.6%

Leader of 5 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 29 minutes ago

Apr 19, 24, 8:14 PM UTCJan 1, 50, 7:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.