Will any of the following western countries go to war with each other before 2030?
GeopoliticsOne-Off3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 91.8%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleFeb 13, 23, 1:03 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
WEIRD = Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Developed.
- List of WEIRD countries for the purposes of this market:
- Czech Republic
- United Kingdom
- United States
Open markets
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- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
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- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will any of the following western countries go to war with each other before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will any of the following western countries go to war with each other before 2030? resolve?
- Will any of the following western countries go to war with each other before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.
- How is Will any of the following western countries go to war with each other before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: WEIRD = Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Developed.