Will 200 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?
One-OffGeopoliticsMiddle East2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 98.9%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMay 27, 26, 3:34 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill 120 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill 110 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day while Trump is President?
Manifold MarketsAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
PolymarketHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 26?
PolymarketHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 26?
PolymarketRules
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at chokepoint6 , both in the chart and through downloadable files.
- Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will only consider days after market creation (not any day in 2026 including before creation).
- [link preview]