Will 200 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?
One-OffGeopoliticsMiddle East3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 99%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleMay 27, 26, 3:34 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?
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PolymarketRules
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at chokepoint6 , both in the chart and through downloadable files.
- Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will only consider days after market creation (not any day in 2026 including before creation).
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Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will 200 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will 200 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026? resolve?
- Will 200 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will 200 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at chokepoint6 , both in the chart and through downloadable files.