Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 58.6%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJul 8, 26, 6:36 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill 200 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill 110 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day while Trump is President?
Manifold Markets0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by which date?
PolymarketHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 7?
PolymarketAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September?
PolymarketRules
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at chokepoint6 , both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will 120 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 59% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will 120 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day before 2030? resolve?
- Will 120 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will 120 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at chokepoint6 , both in the chart and through downloadable files.