Will 110 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day while Trump is President?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle East2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 54.9%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 9, 26, 5:12 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 26?
PolymarketRules
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at chokepoint6 , both in the chart and through downloadable files.
- Must occur after market creation, July 9th.
- (which aligns with the start of the Iran war, of course this happened on a semi daily basis pre war.)
