Which party will win the popular vote in Texas in the 2028 presidential election?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastRepublican Party 68.1%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-20.5 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleNov 6, 26, 12:57 AM UTCNov 8, 28, 12:00 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
Resolves to the party of the presidential ticket with the most votes in Texas in the November 7, 2028 election, per Texas's certified result.
- Only the vote count matters: how Texas awards its electoral votes, including under a national popular vote compact, doesn't.
- Only the party matters: a ticket on the Democratic or Republican line counts as that party even if also listed on other parties' lines.
- Any other ticket resolves to Other, or to its own answer if one has been added.
- Resolves on the certified result, or earlier once the AP has called it and no recount could change it.
- N/A if Texas holds no popular vote for President.