Which party will win the popular vote in Virginia in the 2028 presidential election?
13.1 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastDemocratic Party 89.1%+13.1ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
1
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+13.1 pts
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Nov 6, 26, 12:57 AM UTCNov 8, 28, 12:00 PM UTC
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KalshiThird-party share of the 2028 presidential popular vote?
KalshiRules
Resolves to the party of the presidential ticket with the most votes in Virginia in the November 7, 2028 election, per Virginia's certified result.
- Only the vote count matters: how Virginia awards its electoral votes, including under a national popular vote compact, doesn't.
- Only the party matters: a ticket on the Democratic or Republican line counts as that party even if also listed on other parties' lines.
- Any other ticket resolves to Other, or to its own answer if one has been added.
- Resolves on the certified result, or earlier once the AP has called it and no recount could change it.
- N/A if Virginia holds no popular vote for President.
