KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale dataNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Nov 6, 2026, 12:31 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
At least 1% · —
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Stored price
At least 2.5% 45%Market line of 8 lines
At least 2.5% 45%Market quality
22 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$0
Open interest unknownBid / Ask
— / —
At least 1%Spread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 6, 26, 12:00 AM UTCJan 8, 29, 2:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · At least 1%
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a third party candidate win the 2028 USA presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWill a third-party or independent candidate win any state in the 2024 or 2028 US presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsWill a third party win a federal office in the US before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill an independent or third-party candidate win a state?
KalshiWill a third party get more than 25% of the popular vote in a presidential election no later than 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhich states will join the National Popular Vote Compact?
KalshiRules
If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 2.5% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Election Commission
- Third-party votes are all votes cast for President other than votes for the Democratic nominee and the Republican nominee. They include votes for independent and minor-party candidates, write-in votes, and votes for "None of these candidates." A nominee is the candidate the Democratic Party or the Republican Party nominated for President. A nominee's votes on every ballot line are combined, including a line of another party (such as New York's Conservative and Working Families lines), and are not third-party votes. The third-party share is the third-party votes divided by the total votes cast for President in the 50 states and the District of Columbia, using the Federal Election Commission's "Official Presidential General Election Results" for the Nov 7, 2028 election: (Total Votes minus the Democratic nominee's total minus the Republican nominee's total) divided by Total Votes. Blank and spoiled ballots are not counted. Votes the report does not include, such as write-ins a state does not tally, are not added from other sources. In a state that uses ranked-choice voting, first-round votes are used. The first version of the report that the FEC publishes is used; later revisions do not count. Each state's figures are its final certified results, including a recount completed before certification. If the FEC has not published the report by expiration, the sum of the states' and the District of Columbia's final certified results is used.
Rules for each outcome
- At least 1%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 1% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1.5%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 1.5% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 2%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 2% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 2.5%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 2.5% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 3%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 3% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 4%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 4% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 5%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 5% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 7%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 7% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
