KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale dataNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Nov 6, 2026, 2:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored price
No 95.5%
No 95.5%Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$0
Open interest unknownBid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 6, 26, 12:00 AM UTCDec 19, 28, 2:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · No
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a third-party or independent candidate win any state in the 2024 or 2028 US presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsWill a third party candidate win the 2028 USA presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWhat party will the next third party candidate to win a state in the US presidential election
Manifold MarketsWill the 2028 Democratic presidential candidate win any state trump won by 10% or more in 2024?
Manifold MarketsThird-party share of the 2028 presidential popular vote?
KalshiWill any independent or 3rd party candidate win a House or Senate race in 2026?
KalshiRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- A state or the District of Columbia is counted when the candidate with the most votes statewide in its certified results is neither the Democratic Party's nor the Republican Party's nominee for President. Write-in candidates count. Electoral votes, including any cast by unpledged or faithless electors, do NOT decide a state's winner. A party's nominee is the candidate that party officially nominates for President. A nominee who is also listed under another party's line, such as the Working Families Party in New York, is still that party's nominee and does NOT count as independent or third party. A candidate who is endorsed by either party but is not its nominee counts. A candidate listed on a state's ballot as the Democratic or Republican candidate in place of that party's nominee does NOT count. In Maine and Nebraska, only the statewide vote counts. In a state that counts ranked-choice ballots, such as Maine, the candidate with the most votes is the one leading the final round of the certified tabulation. Winning a congressional district does NOT count. Resolution is based on certified results only, not preliminary results.
Rules for each outcome
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
