Will the 2028 Democratic presidential candidate win any state trump won by 10% or more in 2024?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 65.4%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleSep 7, 26, 1:14 AM UTCNov 8, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves yes if the 2028 Democratic presidential candidate wins a state in 2028 that trump won by 10% or more in 2024.
Open markets
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- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
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- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
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- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
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- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
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- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
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- $213.1M
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- $547.7K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the 2028 Democratic presidential candidate win any state trump won by 10% or more in 2024??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 65% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the 2028 Democratic presidential candidate win any state trump won by 10% or more in 2024? resolve?
- Will the 2028 Democratic presidential candidate win any state trump won by 10% or more in 2024? is scheduled to resolve on November 8, 2028.
- How is Will the 2028 Democratic presidential candidate win any state trump won by 10% or more in 2024? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves yes if the 2028 Democratic presidential candidate wins a state in 2028 that trump won by 10% or more in 2024.