Will a major 2028 Democratic presidential candidate propose creating a Cabinet-level department to deal with AI risk?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 75.7%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJul 17, 26, 8:58 PM UTCNov 7, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
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Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee
KalshiRules
A "major" candidate is defined as being invited to participate in the televised debates, and/or receiving over 10% in at least 5 consecutive polls from different pollsters, anytime between now and the end of the 2028 Democratic primaries.
- If a major candidate proposes an existing federal agency should be tasked with developing an AI x-risk framework, that doesn't count.
- If a major candidate proposes the creation of an entire new Cabinet-level department to deal with the impact of AI on the economy or environment, but doesn't specifically mention x-risk, that doesn't count either.
- What counts is if a Democratic presidential candidate, treated by the media & public as having a serious chance of winning the nomination, says something along the lines of "AI might kill us all, and we should create a new Cabinet-level department tasked with figuring out a response", even if it's an off-the-cuff statement at a debate or town hall that they don't ever follow up on.
