Will any independent or 3rd party candidate win a House or Senate race in 2026?
One-OffPoliticsElectionUS Politics16d
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored price
No 57.5%
No 57.5%Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$2.1K
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
—
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jan 15, 26, 3:00 PM UTCNov 10, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · No
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will "Nullius in Verba: 3rd party evidence for Nect..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "We need 3rd party Training-Run Assessments" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill a Third Party Candidate win a House seat by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill there a 3rd party candidate win at least one state in the US presidential election before the US adds a 51st state
Manifold MarketsWill Democrats sweep the New England House and Senate races?
KalshiHow many House and Senate seats will Dems control after the 2026 midterms?
PredictItRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- For the purposes of this market, any candidate that is not officially affiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered independent or third party, regardless of whether they join a party’s caucus or conference after the election. For example, Senator Bernie Sanders would be considered an independent candidate. Third party or independent candidates who accept the endorsement of the Democratic or Republican party will still count if they are not officially affiliated or do not explicitly represent either of the two major parties. However, candidates that are officially affiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties will NOT count, even if they have the formal support of other third parties (such as the Working Families or Conservative parties in New York). The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline. If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration. This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Rules for each outcome
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
