Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:28 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 68.6%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleAug 22, 24, 1:42 PM UTCJan 1, 41, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
The US has had a rich history of 3rd Party Candidates winning House of Representatives seats including 8 Reps from the Minnesota Farmer-Labor Party, and members from the Liberals, American Labor Party, and more.
- But since the 1950s, the only non-Democrats/Republicans have been Independents.
- Will there be an elected member of the US House of Representatives with a party affiliation that is not with the Democratic or Republican parties by the end of 2040? Independents don’t count.
- It doesn’t matter if they caucus with either major party, nor does it matter if they’ve taken office by the time of market closing.
- Any person winning a US House election from a 3rd party will Resolve YES.
- If someone switches to a 3rd party while holding a seat, they must be reaffirmed by their constituents before this Resolves YES.
