Will a third party candidate win the 2028 USA presidential election?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will a third party candidate win the 2028 USA presidential election??

Manifold Markets prices No at 97.7% as of November 7, 2026.

When does Will a third party candidate win the 2028 USA presidential election? resolve?

Will a third party candidate win the 2028 USA presidential election? is scheduled to resolve on December 14, 2028.

How is Will a third party candidate win the 2028 USA presidential election? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: For the purposes of this market, a "third party candidate" is any person EXCEPT the candidates chosen/endorsed by the DNC and the RNC.

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KALSHI

Alaska Senate winner?

• Democratic party-0.1pt97.3%
• Republican party+0.3pt2.8%

Total Vol

$30.6M

24h Vol

$5.2M

KALSHI

2028 Democratic presidential nominee

• Jon Ossoff+1.0pt24.5%
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt13.5%
• Gavin Newsom-1.0pt

KALSHI

Mississippi Senate winner?

• Scott Colom+0.7pt98.8%
• Cindy Hyde-Smith-0.7pt1.3%

Total Vol

$35.9M

24h Vol

$3.7M

KALSHI

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

• Jon Ossoff-2.0pt20.5%
• Marco Rubio+2.0pt11.5%
• J.D. Vance-3.0pt

KALSHI

2028 Republican presidential nominee

• J.D. Vance33.5%
• Marco Rubio-1.0pt20.5%
• Ron DeSantis17.5%

KALSHI

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

• Above 52-0.6pt98.7%
• Below 45+0.8pt0.7%
• 48+0.1pt

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