What are the current odds for Will a third party win a federal office in the US before the end of 2028??

Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of November 6, 2026.

Will a third party win a federal office in the US before the end of 2028?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

No 91%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 4 hours ago

Stale

Jul 8, 25, 3:15 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

"federal office" refers to the presidency, vice-presidency, the Senate, and the House of Representatives.

The candidate representing the "third party" cannot be an independent (nor a Democrat, or a Republican).
To "win" a federal office means the office must be obtained by the third party in an election, so an elected Democrat, Republican, or independent joining a third party in an office that they won beforehand as one of the above would not count.
This question will include results from the 2028 elections and can resolve to presumptive winners as of December 2028 (which is to say, this question does not need to wait until a third party's candidates are formally in-office and can resolve to the confirmation of their election).