Which party will win the popular vote in Pennsylvania in the 2028 presidential election?
0.1 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastDemocratic Party 66.3%+0.1ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+24.6 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleNov 6, 26, 12:56 AM UTCNov 8, 28, 12:00 PM UTC
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KalshiThird-party share of the 2028 presidential popular vote?
KalshiRules
Resolves to the party of the presidential ticket with the most votes in Pennsylvania in the November 7, 2028 election, per Pennsylvania's certified result.
- Only the vote count matters: how Pennsylvania awards its electoral votes, including under a national popular vote compact, doesn't.
- Only the party matters: a ticket on the Democratic or Republican line counts as that party even if also listed on other parties' lines.
- Any other ticket resolves to Other, or to its own answer if one has been added.
- Resolves on the certified result, or earlier once the AP has called it and no recount could change it.
- N/A if Pennsylvania holds no popular vote for President.