Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2027 41.4%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+7.2 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJun 22, 26, 10:41 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war
Manifold MarketsUkraine to concede formal autonomy to the Donbas region in 2026?
FutuurWill Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by which date?
PolymarketWill Ukraine regain control of the whole of Kherson region by 2028?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to the year (2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, or 2030) in which the Russian Federation establishes complete control over the entire Donbas region.
- If this is not achieved by December 31, 2030, the market will resolve to "Never."
- For the purposes of this market:
- The Donbas region is defined as the combined administrative territories within the official pre-2014 borders of Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast.
- Complete control means Russian military forces (or proxy forces aligned with Russia) exercise physical control over 100% of the land within the administrative borders of both oblasts.