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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. What will be included in the Iran-US peace deal?
Manifold Markets

What will be included in the Iran-US peace deal?

PoliticsAIGeopolitics6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Opening of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz without tolls. 95.3%
Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters

15

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 8 hours ago

Stale
Apr 8, 26, 12:56 AMJan 1, 27, 1:40 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Opening of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz without tolls.95%

Rules

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market will resolve based on the official outcome of the current diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding a long-term peace agreement, during or after the two-week ceasefire period initiated on April 7, 2026.
  • If no peace deal is reached by the end of 2026, the options on what will be included resolve NO.
  • As of April 8, 2026, the United States and Iran have entered a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan.
  • This pause in military hostilities follows weeks of escalating tensions, during which President Donald Trump issued multiple threats to target Iranian critical infrastructure—specifically bridges and power plants—unless Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and enter into a long-term peace agreement.
  • President Trump has characterized the current 10-point proposal from Iran as a "workable basis" for negotiation and has stated that both the U.S. and Iran are "very far along" in drafting a definitive agreement.

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Rules

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market will resolve based on the official outcome of the current diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding a long-term peace agreement, during or after the two-week ceasefire period initiated on April 7, 2026.
  • If no peace deal is reached by the end of 2026, the options on what will be included resolve NO.
  • As of April 8, 2026, the United States and Iran have entered a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan.
  • This pause in military hostilities follows weeks of escalating tensions, during which President Donald Trump issued multiple threats to target Iranian critical infrastructure—specifically bridges and power plants—unless Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and enter into a long-term peace agreement.
  • President Trump has characterized the current 10-point proposal from Iran as a "workable basis" for negotiation and has stated that both the U.S. and Iran are "very far along" in drafting a definitive agreement.