Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastA (phased) lifting of specific U.S. economic and oil sanctions on Iran. 96.4%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 26, 12:56 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 1:40 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the official outcome of the current diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding a long-term peace agreement, during or after the two-week ceasefire period initiated on April 7, 2026.
- If no peace deal is reached by the end of 2026, the options on what will be included resolve NO.
- As of April 8, 2026, the United States and Iran have entered a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan.
- This pause in military hostilities follows weeks of escalating tensions, during which President Donald Trump issued multiple threats to target Iranian critical infrastructure—specifically bridges and power plants—unless Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and enter into a long-term peace agreement.
- President Trump has characterized the current 10-point proposal from Iran as a "workable basis" for negotiation and has stated that both the U.S. and Iran are "very far along" in drafting a definitive agreement.
