Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 83.8%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jun 29, 26, 12:09 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran.
- Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
- Even upon the signing of such agreement, if there is the exchanging of the bombing, attacks, blockades, assassinations, drone striking, jibs and the jabs, etc. within a 45-day period, it is considered NOT A FUCKING PERMANENT PEACE DEAL.
- It should be very easy to be understanding how this could be resolving.