PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 86.1%
Market quality
75 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.7K
Liquidity
$34.7K
High liquidityBid / Ask
13.0% / 14.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-2.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jun 23, 26, 4:53 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
- The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.