Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.8%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleAug 27, 26, 10:31 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if an agreement or treaty between Iran and Oman is finalized and implemented that prohibits military vessels from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which legally or physically prevents U.S. military vessels (including the 5th Fleet) from passing through the strait to enter or exit the Persian Gulf.
- This market resolves to NO if:
- No such treaty is finalized and implemented by the cutoff date.
- A treaty is finalized but does not ban U.S. military vessels from transiting the strait.
- The blockade is lifted and military transit resumes without such restrictions.