Will Iran sign a peace deal with the middle east countries
CommoditiesGeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastChina3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.6%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMar 4, 26, 7:54 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
PolymarketUkraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?
PolymarketWhat will be included in the Iran-US peace deal?
Manifold MarketsUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsRussia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal to be reached by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhat lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Iran signs a formal peace agreement or comprehensive deal with one or more Middle Eastern countries (Arab states, Israel, or other regional actors) that includes binding commitments on nuclear policy, regional security, or other substantive matters.
- The agreement must be publicly announced and documented by official government sources or major international news outlets.
- This market resolves NO if no such agreement is signed, or if only preliminary statements of intent or non-binding frameworks are reached without formal treaty or accord.
- As of late February 2026, Israel and the United States engaged in coordinated joint attacks on various sites in Iran, starting a major conflict aimed at regime change.
- The attacks included the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Open markets
Commodities
KALSHIOil Price (WTI) on Sep 8, 2026?
- Above $90.99+14.0pt99%
- Above $90.49+9.0pt99%
- Above $83.4999%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $478.9K
- 24h Vol
- $306.2K
POLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
- ↑ $90+35.5pt100%
- ↑ $85+5.7pt100%
- ↓ $90100%
+22 more outcomes
KALSHIFlorida gas prices tomorrow
- Above 3.910099%
- Above 3.895099%
- Above 3.890099%
+34 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $147.5K
- 24h Vol
- $147.5K
KALSHINatural gas price on September 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Above $2.85097%
- Above $2.85594%
- Above $2.86089%
+67 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $132.1K
- 24h Vol
- $131.5K
KALSHIUS gas prices tomorrow
- Above 4.150099%
- Above 4.145099%
- Above 4.135099%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $130.6K
- 24h Vol
- $128.4K
KALSHIOil Price (WTI) on Sep 9, 2026?
- Above $85.4999%
- Above $85.99+7.0pt99%
- Above $84.9999%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $131.8K
- 24h Vol
- $90.6K
- Copper price on September 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Brent crude oil price on September 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Gold price on September 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- US gas prices this week
- Diesel prices tomorrow
- Illinois gas prices tomorrow
- How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?
- Ohio gas prices tomorrow
- Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 11, 2026?
- Texas gas prices tomorrow
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iran sign a peace deal with the middle east countries?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 73% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Iran sign a peace deal with the middle east countries resolve?
- Will Iran sign a peace deal with the middle east countries is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Iran sign a peace deal with the middle east countries settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria