Will Iran sign a peace deal with the middle east countries
CommoditiesGeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastChina2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 12:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 72.6%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 58 minutes ago
LaggingMar 4, 26, 7:54 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Iran signs a formal peace agreement or comprehensive deal with one or more Middle Eastern countries (Arab states, Israel, or other regional actors) that includes binding commitments on nuclear policy, regional security, or other substantive matters.
- The agreement must be publicly announced and documented by official government sources or major international news outlets.
- This market resolves NO if no such agreement is signed, or if only preliminary statements of intent or non-binding frameworks are reached without formal treaty or accord.
- As of late February 2026, Israel and the United States engaged in coordinated joint attacks on various sites in Iran, starting a major conflict aimed at regime change.
- The attacks included the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
