Will America receive more tourists from the Middle East in 2026 than in 2025?
One-OffMiddle EastGeopoliticsUS Politics3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 90.5%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMar 16, 26, 10:35 PM UTCJan 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Market will resolve early in 2027 based on official data from
- https://www.trade.gov/i-94-arrivals-program
- So far, January preliminary data is out and it shows a 2.6% uptick in arrivals from the middle east.
- Iranian arrivals were already down 85% in January.
- Arrivals from Israel Turkey and UAE were higher.
- Flight disruptions will push data in one direction; a desire by citizens to get out of the region could push it in another.
