What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastRussia / Ukraine3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 71.2%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleAug 29, 26, 8:29 AM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
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FutuurWill the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves to YES if a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine is signed by both belligerents and successfully remains in effect for 180 consecutive calendar days before a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the conflict involving Iran achieves the same.
- This market resolves to NO if a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the conflict involving Iran is signed by the required belligerents and successfully remains in effect for 180 consecutive calendar days before a formal, comprehensive peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine achieves the same.
- Signatory & Conflict Scope
- Russia–Ukraine: Must be signed by the executive leadership or authorized plenipotentiaries of both Russia and Ukraine.
- Iran Conflict: Must be signed by the executive leadership or authorized plenipotentiaries of Iran AND either (a) the United States, (b) Israel, or (c) both.
- Signing with one state satisfies the condition provided all hostilities between Iran and that signatory state formally terminate under the treaty terms.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 71% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's? resolve?
- What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's? is scheduled to resolve on December 30, 2026.
- How is What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves to YES if a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine is signed by both belligerents and successfully remains in effect for 180 consecutive calendar days before a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the conflict involving Iran achieves the same.