Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastUS ground troops, including special operations forces, physically enter Iranian territory by May 1, 2026 100%Leader of 43 outcomes
Forecasters
523
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Mar 7, 26, 10:55 AMMar 7, 27, 10:55 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 202619%
Volume trend
$3.7kJul 912d of dataJul 28
Related Markets
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by which date?
$2.8MJuly 31: 100%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
$763.2KJuly 18: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
$598.5KAugust 31: 72%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US-Iran nuclear deal?
$19.5KBefore Aug 1, 2026: 0%
KALSHI
KALSHIWill a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
$5.3KYes: 1.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
What will Trump say during his meeting with Netanyahu?
$3.9KCeasefire: 41%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
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Tracks the ongoing US-Iran war's airstrikes, naval clashes, and fallout from Khamenei's killing.
- Iran closed Strait of Hormuz after US sank its warships and hit nuclear sites.
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