Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.4%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleOct 11, 25, 12:06 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor be removed from the royal line of succession?
KalshiPedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by which date?
PolymarketCarles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?
PolymarketSpain snap election called in 2026?
PolymarketWill Spain ban bullfighting before 2027?
KalshiWill the US announce in 2026 it is closing a military base in Germany or Spain?
PredictItRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Spain ceases to be a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by January 1, 2027.
- This includes, but is not limited to, a formal withdrawal by Spain in accordance with Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty, or an explicit, official, and universally recognized declaration by NATO that Spain is no longer a member state.
- The market will resolve to "No" if Spain remains a NATO member as of January 1, 2027.
- Spain became the 16th member of NATO on May 30, 1982.
- Since its accession, Spain has been a committed ally, participating in NATO's political and military structures.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Spain removed from NATO by 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Spain removed from NATO by 2027? resolve?
- Spain removed from NATO by 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Spain removed from NATO by 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria