Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastUS or Israel attacks Pickaxe Mountain before Dec 15, 2026 40.8%+2.4ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+2.4 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleOct 21, 26, 5:13 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market is an independent multiple-choice market.
- Each option resolves independently to YES, NO, or N/A based on credible reporting from major news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg), official military/government statements, or verified satellite imagery analysis from established nonpartisan monitoring organizations (e.g., CSIS, ISIS).
- Any user may add new answers.
- For each listed option, the criteria are defined as follows:
- the named outcome:
