In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, which country is most likely to detonate it first?
GeopoliticsAI7yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast🇮🇱 Israel 27.2%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
92
Question type
multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+5.6 pts
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Updated 18 hours ago
StaleAug 20, 23, 4:09 AM UTCDec 31, 33, 3:59 PM UTC
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FutuurRules
First nuclear weapon detonate: which country is responsible for it
- Nuclear tests don't count, only actual weapon used for war or strategic purpose connecting to war.
- Update 2025-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator confirmed that a nuclear detonation under a 'last warning' doctrine would count.
- This includes scenarios such as:
- A single nuclear strike
- Intended as a communication strategy or to show resolve
