How will Trump respond if China attacks, blockades, or physically annexes Taiwan before the end of his presidency?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for How will Trump respond if China attacks, blockades, or physically annexes Taiwan before the end of his presidency??

Manifold Markets prices China will not attack/blockade/annex Taiwan before the end of Trump's presidency. at 71% as of September 8, 2026.

When does How will Trump respond if China attacks, blockades, or physically annexes Taiwan before the end of his presidency? resolve?

How will Trump respond if China attacks, blockades, or physically annexes Taiwan before the end of his presidency? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.

How is How will Trump respond if China attacks, blockades, or physically annexes Taiwan before the end of his presidency? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I've added basic answers, but I'm open to suggestions for other answers.

POLYMARKET

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

• United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
• New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
• Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$25.8M

24h Vol

$574.8K

POLYMARKET

US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?

• December 31-3.1pt48.3%
• October 31-3.0pt28.9%
• September 30-4.0pt12.3%

+17 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?

• December 317%
• September 30+0.4pt2%
• July 310%

+7 more outcomes

Total Vol

POLYMARKET

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

• September 30-4.0pt75%
• September 18-7.0pt69%
• September 11-13.0pt57%

+2 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

• No-0.1pt96%
• Yes+0.1pt4%

Total Vol

$41.1M

24h Vol

$109.5K

POLYMARKET

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• July 18+0.3pt100%
• July 20+0.1pt100%
• July 22+0.5pt100%

+20 more outcomes

• Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
• US-Iran nuclear deal?
• Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
• Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
• Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?