![[Metaculus] If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fdream%252Ff4fGBK_uhp.png%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3D37689a24-16db-4db1-9c60-f57c591f92d3&w=128&q=80)
[Metaculus] If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?
GeopoliticsOne-OffChina8y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 86%
No 86%Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleOct 7, 23, 1:16 PM UTCJan 3, 35, 9:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- Resolution criteria
- If China does not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before January 1, 2035, then this question will resolve as Ambiguous.
- If China does invade Taiwan, this question will resolve as Yes if the United Kingdom responds with military forces within 365 days from of the beginning of the Chinese invasion.
- In line with our main question, China will be considered to have launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan if either of these occur:
