Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.5%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMar 5, 24, 12:47 PM UTCJul 1, 28, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketTrump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Referring to land controlled by Russia today in 2024.
- So, things like talking action to reclaim land from some earlier set of borders would count.
- YES requires credible sources, battles or clear Chinese troops on the other side of the border.
- Or, China having bombed anything on the Russian side, or does drone strikes.
- Or other kinetic attacks.
- Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate.