Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 76.8%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 13, 26, 5:12 PM UTCJun 30, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRules
Credible sources, battles or clear Russian troops on the other side of the border.
- Or, bombs them, or does drone strikes.
- Or other kinetic attacks.
- Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate.
- There has to be at least a shot fired.