Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Flavio Bolsonaro (99%)
Resolved: Oct 5, 2026, 1:03 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Probability Timeline
Lula1%
Flavio Bolsonaro99%
Other0%
Won
Lost
Lost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the highest number of valid votes (excluding blank and null votes) in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, according to official data released by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE).
- First Round Date: October 4, 2026.
- Runoff Clarification: The market resolves based solely on the results of the first round.
- Even if no candidate achieves the absolute majority (>50%) required to win the presidency outright (thereby triggering a runoff on October 25, 2026), the candidate with the most valid votes in the first round will be declared the winner.
- Unlisted Winner: Because the options list is locked, if a candidate not listed among the choices wins the first round, this market will resolve to N/A.
