100 military deaths in a conflict between Israel and Turkey before 2030?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.8%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMar 5, 26, 3:30 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 3:29 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if credible international sources report at least 100 military deaths resulting from direct armed conflict between Israel and Turkey before January 1, 2030.
- Deaths must be confirmed casualties from combat operations, airstrikes, naval engagements, or other direct military confrontations between the two nations' armed forces.
- Deaths from terrorism, espionage operations, or indirect consequences of conflict do not count.
- Resolution will be determined by reports from major international news organizations, military analysts, or official government statements from either nation or credible third parties.
- This description was generated by AI.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 100 military deaths in a conflict between Israel and Turkey before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does 100 military deaths in a conflict between Israel and Turkey before 2030? resolve?
- 100 military deaths in a conflict between Israel and Turkey before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is 100 military deaths in a conflict between Israel and Turkey before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria