US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?
10.0% (24h)Corporate ActionsOne-OffMusicEntertainmentPoliticsUS PoliticsGeopolitics5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31 59%+2.5%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.7K
Liquidity
$6.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
20.0% / 43.0%
Spread
115.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jul 11, 26, 6:54 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3159%
Volume trend
$1.7kJul 122d of dataJul 13
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On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/).
- On July 7, 2026 U.S.
- President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
- Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify.