US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by which date?
3.5 pts (24h)Corporate ActionsOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsGeopolitics3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 35%+3.5ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$223.9
Liquidity
$1.3K
Low liquiditySpread
5.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
1
7d Change
-3.5 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jul 11, 26, 6:54 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the U.S. grant CAATSA sanctions relief to Turkey this year?
KalshiUS Govt Sanctions Keir Starmer chief of staff?
Manifold MarketsWill any non-USA country ease Russian oil sanctions or price caps?
Manifold MarketsWill Venezuelans be better off at end of 2026, conditional on sanctions NOT being lifted?
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Turkey military clash before 2027?
PolymarketGreece x Turkey military engagement by which date?
PolymarketRules
On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/).
- On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
- Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify.
- However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.