US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by which date?
2.5 pts (24h)Corporate ActionsOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsGeopolitics2mo
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December 31 · —
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Jul 11, 26, 6:54 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the U.S. grant CAATSA sanctions relief to Turkey this year?
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Manifold MarketsRules
On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/).
- On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
- Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify.
- However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.