Will Turkey and/or Northern Cyprus occupy the Republic of Cyprus before 2030?
One-OffRussia / UkraineGeopoliticsEurope3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 89.9%
No 89.9%Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJan 2, 24, 3:24 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- If currently unoccupied part of the Republic of Cyprus is occupied by the Turkish military forces or by the forces of Northern Cyprus before the market end, then the resolution is YES.
- If occupation is partial, but more than half of the current area (that is not occupied as of 2024-01-02) of the republic is occupied, then the resolution is also YES.
- If the occupation forces are not official military forces of Northern Cyprus and/or Turkey, but they are supplied and/or significantly supported by them, then the resolution is YES (e.g. cases similar to Donetsk/Lugansk Peoples Republics after 2014 would also be considered as occupation by Russia for the purposes of this market).
- Otherwise the resolution is NO.
- Author betting policy