KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Alme, 5+ pts 82%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$698.3
Low liquiditySpread
9.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Sep 8, 26, 6:37 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Montana by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the Montana Secretary of State
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Montana Senate Election Margin of Victory · Republican 6-9% 22%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Montana Senate margin of victory?
- Kalshi prices Alme, 5+ pts at 82% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Montana Senate margin of victory resolve?
- Montana Senate margin of victory is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2027.
- How is Montana Senate margin of victory settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Montana by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Montana Senate margin of victory listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.