GeminiKYC requiredVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
Xavier Becerra 95.5%
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$197
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
95.0% / 96.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 28 minutes ago
Feb 27, 26, 11:01 PMNov 4, 26, 12:00 PM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Xavier Becerra96%
Compare venues· Xavier Becerra
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall64% match · linked | High | 96% | +3pt | $86.7K | $20M | 28 minutes ago | Open → |
 Polymarket78% match · auto | High | 93% | 0pt | $5.8K | $6.4M | 8 minutes ago | Open → |
| Kalshi80% match · auto | High | 95% | +2pt | $978.2 | $606.7K | 28 minutes ago | Open → |
| GeminiThis page | Low | 96% | +3pt | $197 | $0 | 28 minutes ago | |
 Futuur78% match · linked | Low | 84% | -9pt | $0 | $8.4K | 28 minutes ago | Open → |
 Smarkets78% match · linked | Low | 89% | -4pt | $1 | $0 | 28 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets80% match · linked | — | 95% | +2pt | — | — | 10 hours ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets67% match · linked | — | 94% | +1pt | — | — | 13 days ago | Open → |
 PredictIt67% match · linked | — | 93% | 0pt | — | — | 28 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets67% match · linked | — | 93% | +0pt | — | — | 9 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
California Governor winner?
1y
-0.4pt95%
5%
84 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$1.2M
24h Vol$978.2
KALSHIAlso available on Manifold Markets
California Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026?
3mo
+1.1pt95%
-1.1pt4.9%
0.1%
Community forecast29 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Polymarket
California Governor Election Winner
0.1 pts3mo
+0.2pt93.9%
-0.1pt6.1%
0%
+42 more outcomes
89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$40.5M
24h Vol$5.8K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Smarkets
California Governor Election Winner
89.3%
5.4%
22 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$3.5K
24h Vol$1
SMARKETSAlso available on Futuur
California governor election winner
3mo
83.2%
6.9%
6.9%
+1 more outcomes
39 • Low qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidity
Total Vol$2.1K
24h Vol$0
FUTUURAlso available on PredictIt
Who will win the 2026 election for governor of California?
6mo
93%
5%
1%
+12 more outcomes
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?
3mo
93.3%
6.2%
0.2%
+12 more outcomes
Community forecast59 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be elected governor of California in 2026?
4mo
+2.6pt93.7%
-2.6pt5.4%
0.2%
+7 more outcomes
Community forecast65 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Kalshi
California Governor winner? (Person)
0.3 pts1y
+0.5pt95%
-0.3pt5%
0%
+22 more outcomes
89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$49.3M
24h Vol$86.7K
KALSHIRules
Who will win the California gubernatorial election in 2026?
- If Xavier Becerra is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome verified from the California Secretary of State.
- Note: this event is mutually exclusive.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
- If Steve Hilton is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.1k95.5%KALSHISteve Hilton — No4d ago
KALSHISteve Hilton — No4d ago$2.9k95.4%KALSHISteve Hilton — No4d ago
KALSHISteve Hilton — No4d ago$1.3k94.6%KALSHISteve Hilton — No8d ago
KALSHISteve Hilton — No8d ago$2.8k94.7%KALSHISteve Hilton — No8d ago
KALSHISteve Hilton — No8d ago$4.7k94.8%KALSHISteve Hilton — No8d ago
KALSHISteve Hilton — No8d ago$1.1k94.4%KALSHISteve Hilton — No8d ago
KALSHISteve Hilton — No8d ago$1.4k95.0%KALSHISteve Hilton — No8d ago
KALSHISteve Hilton — No8d ago$2.2k93.7%KALSHIRepublican party — No10d ago
KALSHIRepublican party — No10d agoVolume trend
$197Jul 273d of dataJul 29
Related Markets
Presidential Election Winner 2028
$1.5MJD Vance: 20%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Florida Republican Governor nominee?
$438.3KJames Fishback: 3%KALSHI
KALSHI
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
$415.8KGavin Newsom: 19%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?
$296.1KHaley Stevens: 20%KALSHI
KALSHI
Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?
$191.1KDavid Crowley: 7%KALSHI
KALSHI
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
$163.9KRobert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket odds swing: Eizenkot hits 51% as Israel campaign kicks offBlockchain.News
Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News
White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk
Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News
White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph
Polymarket odds show Vance at 19.85% as Epstein files critique hits tapeBlockchain.NewsRules
Who will win the California gubernatorial election in 2026?
- If Xavier Becerra is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome verified from the California Secretary of State.
- Note: this event is mutually exclusive.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
- If Steve Hilton is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.