GeminiLimited verified dataCurrent implied probability
Gavin Newsom 17.5%Leader of 12 outcomes
Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$107
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
17.0% / 18.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Feb 19, 26, 10:02 PMNov 10, 28, 12:00 AM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Gavin Newsom18%
Compare venues· Gavin Newsom
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall83% match · auto | High | 18% | 0pt | $1M | $110.1M | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
 Polymarket88% match · auto | High | 20% | +2pt | $364.9K | $73.8M | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
| GeminiThis page | Low | 18% | 0pt | $107 | $0 | 18 minutes ago | |
 Myriad78% match · linked | Low | 40% | +22pt | $0 | $0 | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
 Smarkets64% match · linked | Low | 18% | 0pt | $10 | $0 | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless94% match · auto | Low | 20% | +2pt | $0 | $0 | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets88% match · linked | — | 20% | +2pt | — | — | 46 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets80% match · linked | — | 22% | +4pt | — | — | 18 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Limitless
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
19.7%
14.5%
9.1%
+3 more outcomes
22 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$12.2K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Polymarket
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
-0.1pt20.8%
-0.2pt16.7%
+0.7pt14.6%
+125 more outcomes
89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.2B
24h Vol$364.9K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Manifold Markets
Democratic Nominee for 2028 Presidential Election
1y
20%
10%
8%
+14 more outcomes
Community forecast21 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Kalshi
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
0.8 pts2y
17.1%
14.3%
-1.0pt14.3%
+43 more outcomes
89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$162.5M
24h Vol$1M
KALSHIAlso available on Manifold Markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
-0.2pt34.3%
-0.1pt21.7%
-0.1pt11.8%
+5 more outcomes
Community forecast13 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Myriad
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
23.7 pts73y
+0.2pt39.5%
-0.2pt10.2%
-0.1pt8.4%
+29 more outcomes
30 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
MYRIADAlso available on Smarkets
Democratic Presidential Nominee
20%
17.9%
16.7%
+19 more outcomes
22 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$10.5K
24h Vol$10
SMARKETSRules
2028 Democratic Nominee for President?
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gavin Newsom wins and formally accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for U.S.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market will be official Democratic Party convention records, public confirmations by the Democratic Party, or news sources reporting on either.
- If the named individual wins the nomination but declines or does not accept it, this market will resolve to “No.” Any replacement of the Democratic nominee after acceptance will not affect the resolution of this market.
- This event is mutually exclusive.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions]()
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$40.0k90.0%KALSHIKamala Harris — No3h ago
KALSHIKamala Harris — No3h ago$19.4k97.0%KALSHIMark Kelly — No8h ago
KALSHIMark Kelly — No8h ago$8.8k97.0%KALSHIMark Kelly — No8h ago
KALSHIMark Kelly — No8h ago$6.8k97.0%KALSHIMark Kelly — No8h ago
KALSHIMark Kelly — No8h ago$1.1k87.0%KALSHIJon Ossoff — No8h ago
KALSHIJon Ossoff — No8h ago$2.9k87.0%KALSHIJon Ossoff — No8h ago
KALSHIJon Ossoff — No8h ago$1.1k87.0%KALSHIJon Ossoff — No8h ago
KALSHIJon Ossoff — No8h ago$17.9k87.0%KALSHIJon Ossoff — No8h ago
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2028 Democratic Nominee for President?
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gavin Newsom wins and formally accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for U.S.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market will be official Democratic Party convention records, public confirmations by the Democratic Party, or news sources reporting on either.
- If the named individual wins the nomination but declines or does not accept it, this market will resolve to “No.” Any replacement of the Democratic nominee after acceptance will not affect the resolution of this market.
- This event is mutually exclusive.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions]()