KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
At least 8 · —
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Stored price
At least 16 50.5%Market line of 8 lines
At least 16 50.5%Market quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.3K
Open interest
$3.4K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
At least 8Spread
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Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Nov 13, 26, 3:45 PM UTCJan 3, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · At least 8
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
If the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 16 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Senate DemocratsThe New York TimesAssociated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABC NewsCBS NewsCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBC News
- The first ballot is the first ballot held by the Senate Democratic caucus to elect its leader for the 120th Congress. The count is the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on it, as reported by a Source Agency. The count is 0 if no ballot is held before Jan 3, 2027, including if the caucus elects its leader without one (for example by acclamation, voice vote or unanimous consent). A report that the leader was elected unanimously that gives no number and does not say a ballot was held counts as an election without a ballot, unless a Source Agency reports that a ballot was held. If Chris Van Hollen withdraws, the count is the number of votes cast for him on the first ballot, and 0 if none were cast. Only an exact number reported by a Source Agency counts; a range, a margin or an approximate number does not. If a ballot is held but no Source Agency reports the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen by the Expiration Date, the market resolves to the last fair price as solely determined by the Exchange. If Source Agencies report different counts, the count reported by the Source Agency listed first is used. The following do NOT count: Votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on a later ballot A motion or voice vote after a ballot to make the result unanimous Votes cast for any other candidate, or abstentions
Rules for each outcome
- At least 8
- If the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 8 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 12
- If the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 12 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 16
- If the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 16 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 20
- If the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 20 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 24
- If the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 24 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 22
- If the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 22 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 32
- If the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 32 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 28
- If the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 28 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
