How many votes will Schumer get on the first Senate leader ballot?
14.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffElection1mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
At least 28 · —
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Stored price
At least 40 63%Market line of 8 lines
At least 40 63%Market quality
53 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.8K
Open interest
$3.2K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
At least 28Spread
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Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Nov 13, 26, 3:45 PM UTCJan 3, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · At least 28
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the number of votes cast for Chuck Schumer on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 40 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Senate DemocratsThe New York TimesAssociated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABC NewsCBS NewsCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBC News
- The first ballot is the first ballot held by the Senate Democratic caucus to elect its leader for the 120th Congress. The count is the number of votes cast for Chuck Schumer on it, as reported by a Source Agency. If the caucus elects Chuck Schumer its leader without a ballot (for example by acclamation, voice vote or unanimous consent), the count is the number of senators and senators-elect in the Senate Democratic caucus, including independents who caucus with Democrats. A report that Chuck Schumer was elected unanimously that gives no number and does not say a ballot was held counts as an election without a ballot, unless a Source Agency reports that a ballot was held. The count is 0 if no ballot is held before Jan 3, 2027 and Chuck Schumer is not elected without one. If Chuck Schumer withdraws, the count is the number of votes cast for him on the first ballot, and 0 if none were cast. Only an exact number reported by a Source Agency counts; a range, a margin or an approximate number does not. If a ballot is held but no Source Agency reports the number of votes cast for Chuck Schumer by the Expiration Date, the market resolves to the last fair price as solely determined by the Exchange. If Source Agencies report different counts, the count reported by the Source Agency listed first is used. The following do NOT count: Votes cast for Chuck Schumer on a later ballot A motion or voice vote after a ballot to make the result unanimous Votes cast for any other candidate, or abstentions
Rules for each outcome
- At least 28
- If the number of votes cast for Chuck Schumer on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 28 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 24
- If the number of votes cast for Chuck Schumer on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 24 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 32
- If the number of votes cast for Chuck Schumer on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 32 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 36
- If the number of votes cast for Chuck Schumer on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 36 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 40
- If the number of votes cast for Chuck Schumer on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 40 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 44
- If the number of votes cast for Chuck Schumer on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 44 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 48
- If the number of votes cast for Chuck Schumer on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 48 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 52
- If the number of votes cast for Chuck Schumer on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 52 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
