Which senators will back Schumer for Senate Democratic leader?
6.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffElection1mo
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John Fetterman · —
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John Fetterman 91.5%Leader of 33 outcomes
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Updated 9 minutes ago
Nov 11, 26, 9:30 PM UTCJan 3, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
If Tammy Duckworth publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York TimesAssociated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABC NewsCBS NewsCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBC News
- This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. "The caucus vote" refers to the Senate Democratic caucus's vote on its leader for the 120th Congress. A senator backs Chuck Schumer by publicly stating that they support him or plan to vote for him as leader. Support conditioned only on Chuck Schumer remaining a candidate qualifies; support subject to any other condition does not. The market resolves to Yes if either of the following is confirmed: Backing Chuck Schumer is the senator's public position when the caucus votes. By the end of the day after the vote, the senator says they voted for Chuck Schumer, including saying "aye" on a voice vote. A senator's own account of their vote governs over earlier statements. A senator who says they voted against Chuck Schumer, abstained, or did not vote for him resolves to No. A senator who had not publicly backed Chuck Schumer before the vote resolves to No if, by the end of the day after the vote, they only say they support him going forward or decline to say whether they supported him. If Chuck Schumer is elected by acclamation without a vote, only the first route applies. Once the day after the caucus elects its leader has ended, a senator who has met neither route above resolves to No, without waiting for Jan 3, 2027. A route met by then still counts if a Source Agency confirms it before the market settles. Each market resolves to No if Chuck Schumer withdraws from the leadership election or the caucus does not elect its leader before Jan 3, 2027. A person who is not eligible to vote in the caucus vote as a senator or senator-elect, including a candidate whose Senate race has not been called by then, resolves to No.
Rules for each outcome
- John Fetterman
- If John Fetterman publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Roy Cooper
- If Roy Cooper publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Ruben Gallego
- If Ruben Gallego publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Tammy Duckworth
- If Tammy Duckworth publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cory Booker
- If Cory Booker publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Richard Blumenthal
- If Richard Blumenthal publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Mark Kelly
- If Mark Kelly publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Mary Peltola
- If Mary Peltola publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kirsten Gillibrand
- If Kirsten Gillibrand publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Josh Turek
- If Josh Turek publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Angela Alsobrooks
- If Angela Alsobrooks publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Jon Ossoff
- If Jon Ossoff publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Maggie Hassan
- If Maggie Hassan publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Patty Murray
- If Patty Murray publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Mark Warner
- If Mark Warner publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Tim Kaine
- If Tim Kaine publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Maria Cantwell
- If Maria Cantwell publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Juliana Stratton
- If Juliana Stratton publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Chris Coons
- If Chris Coons publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Raphael Warnock
- If Raphael Warnock publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Andy Kim
- If Andy Kim publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Peter Welch
- If Peter Welch publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Chris Pappas
- If Chris Pappas publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Chris Murphy
- If Chris Murphy publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- James Talarico
- If James Talarico publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Scott Colom
- If Scott Colom publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Ed Markey
- If Ed Markey publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Elizabeth Warren
- If Elizabeth Warren publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Abdul El-Sayed
- If Abdul El-Sayed publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Elissa Slotkin
- If Elissa Slotkin publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Chris Van Hollen
- If Chris Van Hollen publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Bernie Sanders
- If Bernie Sanders publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Martin Heinrich
- If Martin Heinrich publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
