Which senators will back Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader?
5.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffElection1mo
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Abdul El-Sayed · —
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Abdul El-Sayed 84%Leader of 31 outcomes
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Updated 10 minutes ago
Nov 13, 26, 5:30 PM UTCJan 3, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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PredictItRules
If Elizabeth Warren publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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- This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. "The caucus vote" refers to the Senate Democratic caucus's vote on its leader for the 120th Congress. A senator backs Chris Van Hollen by publicly stating that they support him or plan to vote for him as leader. Support conditioned only on Chris Van Hollen remaining a candidate qualifies; support subject to any other condition does not. The market resolves to Yes if either of the following is confirmed: Backing Chris Van Hollen is the senator's public position when the caucus votes. By the end of the day after the vote, the senator says they voted for Chris Van Hollen, including saying "aye" on a voice vote. A senator's own account of their vote governs over earlier statements. A senator who says they voted against Chris Van Hollen, abstained, or did not vote for him resolves to No. A senator who had not publicly backed Chris Van Hollen before the vote resolves to No if, by the end of the day after the vote, they only say they support him going forward or decline to say whether they supported him. If Chris Van Hollen is elected by acclamation without a vote, only the first route applies. Once the day after the caucus elects its leader has ended, a senator who has met neither route above resolves to No, without waiting for Jan 3, 2027. A route met by then still counts if a Source Agency confirms it before the market settles. Each market resolves to No if Chris Van Hollen withdraws from the leadership election or the caucus does not elect its leader before Jan 3, 2027. A person who is not eligible to vote in the caucus vote as a senator or senator-elect, including a candidate whose Senate race has not been called by then, resolves to No.
Rules for each outcome
- Abdul El-Sayed
- If Abdul El-Sayed publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Troy Jackson
- If Troy Jackson publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Elizabeth Warren
- If Elizabeth Warren publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Bernie Sanders
- If Bernie Sanders publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Peggy Flanagan
- If Peggy Flanagan publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Juliana Stratton
- If Juliana Stratton publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Elissa Slotkin
- If Elissa Slotkin publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Scott Colom
- If Scott Colom publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Chris Pappas
- If Chris Pappas publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Adam Hamilton
- If Adam Hamilton publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Mary Peltola
- If Mary Peltola publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Jon Ossoff
- If Jon Ossoff publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- James Talarico
- If James Talarico publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Annie Andrews
- If Annie Andrews publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Chris Murphy
- If Chris Murphy publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Peter Welch
- If Peter Welch publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Andy Kim
- If Andy Kim publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Raphael Warnock
- If Raphael Warnock publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Angela Alsobrooks
- If Angela Alsobrooks publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Mark Kelly
- If Mark Kelly publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Tammy Duckworth
- If Tammy Duckworth publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Mark Warner
- If Mark Warner publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cory Booker
- If Cory Booker publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- John Fetterman
- If John Fetterman publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Richard Blumenthal
- If Richard Blumenthal publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kirsten Gillibrand
- If Kirsten Gillibrand publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Ruben Gallego
- If Ruben Gallego publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Maggie Hassan
- If Maggie Hassan publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Martin Heinrich
- If Martin Heinrich publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Tim Kaine
- If Tim Kaine publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Maria Cantwell
- If Maria Cantwell publicly backs Chris Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
