KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before May 1, 2027 · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored price
Before May 1, 2027 28%Leader of 9 outcomes
Before May 1, 2027 28%Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$17.5K
Open interest
$52.4K
High open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Before May 1, 2027Spread
—
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Nov 8, 26, 3:00 PM UTCMar 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before May 1, 2027
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which senators will back Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader?
KalshiHow many votes will Van Hollen get on the first Senate leader ballot?
KalshiWhich senators will back Van Hollen for Senate Democratic leader?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by which date?
PolymarketWho will announce Presidential run before 2027?
PolymarketWill Gavin Newsom announce a presidential run?
KalshiRules
If Chris Van Hollen has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before May 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPoliticoBloomberg NewsNBC
- The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.
Rules for each outcome
- Before May 1, 2027
- If Chris Van Hollen has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before May 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 1, 2027
- If Chris Van Hollen has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Oct 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If Chris Van Hollen has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jul 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jun 1, 2027
- If Chris Van Hollen has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jun 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Mar 1, 2027
- If Chris Van Hollen has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Mar 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If Chris Van Hollen has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Apr 1, 2027
- If Chris Van Hollen has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Apr 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Feb 1, 2027
- If Chris Van Hollen has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Feb 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Chris Van Hollen has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.