KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Oct 1, 2027 · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored price
Before Oct 1, 2027 73.5%Leader of 6 outcomes
Before Oct 1, 2027 73.5%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$4.3K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Before Oct 1, 2027Spread
—
Market data
Updated 44 minutes ago
Apr 7, 26, 2:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Oct 1, 2027
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Gavin Newsom complete his second term as governor of California?
Manifold MarketsWill Hasan Piker Interview Gavin Newsom in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom formally announce a 2028 presidential campaign before January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsGavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketWhat guests will be on the Gavin Newsom podcast?
Manifold MarketsWhen will JD Vance announce his presidential candidacy?
KalshiRules
If Gavin Newsom has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Oct 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPoliticoBloomberg NewsNBC
- The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Oct 1, 2027
- If Gavin Newsom has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Oct 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If Gavin Newsom has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jul 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Apr 1, 2027
- If Gavin Newsom has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Apr 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Mar 1, 2027
- If Gavin Newsom has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Mar 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Feb 1, 2027
- If Gavin Newsom has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Feb 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Gavin Newsom has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.