Will Gavin Newsom formally announce a 2028 presidential campaign before January 1, 2027?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleApr 25, 26, 7:04 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Hasan Piker Interview Gavin Newsom in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?
KalshiWill Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by which date?
PolymarketGavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketWill Gavin Newsom be the favorite for Democratic Nominee on Dec. 31, 2026? [Per Polymarket Data]
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom complete his second term as governor of California?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Gavin Newsom formally announces his candidacy for the 2028 U.S. presidential election through an official campaign launch, a filing with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), or a definitive public statement confirming he is running for President.
- The announcement must occur before 12:00 AM ET on January 1, 2027.
- If no such formal announcement is made by this date, the market resolves to NO.
- Reliable reporting from major news outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, Politico, The New York Times) will be used to verify the announcement.
- Gavin Newsom, the Governor of California, is frequently discussed as a potential candidate for the Democratic nomination in future presidential election cycles.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Gavin Newsom formally announce a 2028 presidential campaign before January 1, 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Gavin Newsom formally announce a 2028 presidential campaign before January 1, 2027? resolve?
- Will Gavin Newsom formally announce a 2028 presidential campaign before January 1, 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Gavin Newsom formally announce a 2028 presidential campaign before January 1, 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria