Will Gavin Newsom formally announce a 2028 presidential campaign before January 1, 2027?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85%
Forecasters
29
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 hours ago
StaleApr 25, 26, 7:04 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Gavin Newsom formally announces his candidacy for the 2028 U.S. presidential election through an official campaign launch, a filing with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), or a definitive public statement confirming he is running for President.
- The announcement must occur before 12:00 AM ET on January 1, 2027.
- If no such formal announcement is made by this date, the market resolves to NO.
- Reliable reporting from major news outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, Politico, The New York Times) will be used to verify the announcement.
- Gavin Newsom, the Governor of California, is frequently discussed as a potential candidate for the Democratic nomination in future presidential election cycles.
