What are the current odds for Schumer out of senate by 2029??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 73.8% as of November 15, 2026.

When does Schumer out of senate by 2029? resolve?

Schumer out of senate by 2029? is scheduled to resolve on January 4, 2029.

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Chuck Schumer is the current Senate Minority Leader as leader of the Democratic Caucus.

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 73.8%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 51 minutes ago

Lagging

Jan 3, 26, 5:57 AM UTCJan 4, 29, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Chuck Schumer is the current Senate Minority Leader as leader of the Democratic Caucus.

Many are dissatisfied with his leadership, especially after the deal that ended the shutdown in the fall of 2025.
There have been calls for him to resign and/or be primaried, especially by more progressive and anti-establishment voters in the Democratic Party.
This Market will resolve to YES if Chuck Schumer is no longer a US senator by the beginning of the 121st congress in 2029.
This could be due to his resignation or failure to be re-elected or his death.
If Schumer declines to run for reelection in 2028, this market will be resolved early.